Wednesday, June 16, 2010

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The real estate sector and the crisis in Castellón (III) We

In October last year tried data housing sales and prices of them related to Spain and Castellón, on the number of domestic purchases, said that we were minimum housing both new and used (generally below the 40,000 monthly purchases under 20,000 in both types of viviedas), as in Castellón, although in this case with a more erratic behavior (taking into account that our province-year data showed the continuity of the crisis, albeit with a diminishing bleeding in purchases especially in new home).

prices showed, in Spain, Castellón, a lack of flexibility leading to changes in demand (the fall of sales transactions in 2006-much more pronounced in Castellón, down 41% compared to 10 % of the whole of Spain were not reflected in prices until the second and third quarter of 2008), also the year falls in prices (both new and used housing) until the third quarter of 2009 (fourth quarter data at the time) offered no expectations of improvement or to Castellon or the whole of Spain. As data to take into account, the price per square meter at the national level showed a strange parallel between the new and used housing, something that did not, as logic dictates, in Castellón.

The data shown in October last referred to the month of July 2009 and the third quarter of this year, while currently available data for the month and the first quarter and April 2010, so that before to continue with the series, I should update the data and discuss the most significant developments.

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The number of house sales in Spain as a whole has remained more or less stable (between 32,000 and 40,000 transactions per month) with slight variations, as I said in October the three consecutive data upward (from May to July 2009) could not be taken too optimistically, as it departed from the lowest level of operations (the month of April did not reach the 30,000) of the entire series. And indeed, in August saw a further decline, although in the months following their oscillations because both upward and downward levels have been maintained, as I said earlier, within a certain stability. The number of purchases in any case, it is very similar (almost 50%) for both types of homes (new and used), also three consecutive falls to April 2010 can not be pessimistic sense now, as we will see in the charts for interannual variations.

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erratic data that I mentioned in October is held in Castellon in the following months, so, of just over 200 new homes sold in December 2009 (the worst figure corresponds to December 2008, so this month seems to be the worst for sales transactions in Castellón) turn to the more than 700 in August 2009 or almost 500 of October, falling back to of just over 200 in March 2010. That same erratic behavior is found in the old housing, although less virulent falls and comebacks (since January 2008, operations in this type of housing have remained between 300 and 500 per month).

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While still with some reservations (especially in the case of Castellón), interannual variations in operations sales seem to show a clear inflection in the trend, especially in the housing used (with five consecutive increases, the last three above 20%) still holds new housing declines, although interspersed with small rises in the number of operations over the previous year, not forgetting, however, that the level from which it was based was the lowest in the series.

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Domestic prices maintain the downward trend started in the second quarter of 2008, also are maintained in the equalization of prices between new and used housing.

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manteniene In Castellon downward trend in prices of old housing, although the difference with new housing has been reduced by the sharp decline in the first quarter this 2009, the last two quarters have seen a spike in the price per square meter of new housing compared to previous quarters, although annual rates still remain negative, so that it can not yet speak of an upward trend of these prices.

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Although prices began to moderate in a clear from the first quarter of 2006 (the year in which there was a steep drop in home sales transactions, especially in Castellón), the drop in prices per square meter does not occur until the first quarter 2008 in Castellón and to the room where the whole of Spain, the last-year data show what appears a clear change in trend (faster in Castellón), although with declining prices per square meter.

With this update of the data we can continue with this series, whose next installment will deal, as announced in October, on the labor market.

To finish with the first two installments over this update, mentioning that the data used until now in full from the National Institute of Statistics (in its series Statistical Transmissions Property Rights, whose primary source is the College's Registrar Property, Commercial and Personal Property in Spain, and its series Construction Statistics, subseries Housing Prices, whose primary source is the General Directorate for Economic Development Ministerior).

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